Unveiling Climate Complexity: A Multiscale Geological–Molecular Perspective
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70917/jcc-2026-005Keywords:
deep-time climate dynamics, narrative review, hierarchical climate forcing, paleoclimate archives, Milankovitch cycles, solar variability, climate sensitivity, Earth system feedbacksAbstract
This narrative review examines the conceptual foundations of the term “climate” and argues for its rigorous redefinition within a geopaleontological framework. Geological and paleoclimatic archives demonstrate that climate, in the Earth-system sense, represents a long-term emergent state governed primarily by orbital dynamics, tectonic boundary conditions, heliophysical variability, ocean circulation reorganizations, and large-scale biogeochemical feedbacks operating across multi-millennial to multimillion-year timescales. In contrast, contemporary usage often applies the term “climate change” to centennial-scale atmospheric trends derived from instrumental records spanning little more than a century. This scale compression generates conceptual ambiguity by conflating meteorological variability, sub-climatic oscillations, and geological climate states. Drawing upon paleoclimate phase relationships, stratigraphic evidence, Milanković orbital theory, molecular greenhouse-gas physics, and modeling constraints, this review proposes a hierarchical temporal framework distinguishing meteorological (decadal), sub-climatic (centennial), and climatic (millennial and longer) domains. Within this framework, greenhouse gases are interpreted as radiative agents operating within the shorter temporal strata of the Earth system, while long-term climatic regimes remain structured primarily by astronomical and geophysical boundary conditions. This distinction does not deny measurable radiative perturbations but clarifies their position within a multiscale system. By restoring climate to its geological context, the study aims to resolve definitional inconsistencies and promote greater epistemological coherence in climate science and its applications.
References
Mudelsee, M., Bickert, T., Lear, C.H., and Lohmann, G., 2014. Cenozoic climate changes. Reviews of Geophysics, 52, 333–374. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000440
Zachos, J.C., Pagani, M., Sloan, L., Thomas, E., and Billups, K., 2001. Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present. Science, 292(5517), 686–693. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1059412
Ruddiman, W.F., 2006. Orbital changes and climate. Quaternary Science Reviews, 25, 3092–3112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.07.006
Mazza, P.,2025. Reassessing climate variability through geological time: Implications for environmental management and hazard mitigation. Italian Journal of Engineering Geology and Environment, 2, 93-114. https://doi.org/10.4408/IJEGE.2025-02.O-06
Petit, J.R., et al., 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, 399, 429–436. https://doi.org/10.1038/20859
Mudelsee, M., 2001. Phase relations among CO₂, temperature, and ice volume. Quaternary Science Reviews, 20, 583–589. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(00)00141-2
Kawamura, K., et al., 2007. Northern Hemisphere forcing of Antarctic climate. Nature, 448, 912–916. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05903
Hays, J.D., Imbrie, J., and Shackleton, N.J., 1976. Variations in the Earth’s orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages. Science, 194, 1121–1132. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.194.4270.1121
Berger, A., Loutre, M.F., and Mélice, J.L., 2006. Equatorial insolation: from precession harmonics to eccentricity frequencies. Climate of the Past, 2, 131–136. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2-131-2006
Cheng, H., et al., 2022. Milankovitch theory and monsoon. The Innovation, 3(6), 100338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2022.100338
Ganopolski, A., 2024. Toward generalized Milankovitch theory. Climate of the Past, 20, 151–185. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-151-2024
Lisiecki, L., and Raymo, M., 2005. A Pliocene–Pleistocene stack of 57 δ¹⁸O records. Paleoceanography, 20, PA1003. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004PA001071
Wang, R., et al., 2024. Milankovitch sedimentary cycle identification. Frontiers in Earth Science, 12, 1390929. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2024.1390929
Shaviv, N.J., 2003. The spiral arm theory of climate. New Astronomy, 8, 39–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1384-1076(02)00223-8
Soon, W., Connolly, R., and Connolly, M., 2015. Re-evaluating solar variability. Earth-Science Reviews, 150, 409–452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.08.010
Zharkova, V.V., et al., 2015. Heartbeat of the Sun from PCA. Scientific Reports, 5, 15689. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep15689
Palmer, T.N., Shutts, G.J., and Hagedorn, R., 2000. Representing model uncertainty. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 28, 95–123. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.28.1.95
Stainforth, D.A., et al., 2005. Uncertainty in climate response. Nature, 433, 403–406. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03301
Stainforth, D.A., Allen, M.R., Tredger, E.R., and Smith, L.A., 2007a. Confidence and uncertainty. Philosophical Transactions A, 365, 2145–2161. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2074
Stainforth, D.A., et al., 2007b. Issues in interpreting model ensembles. Philosophical Transactions A, 365, 2163–2177. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2076
Edwards, N.R., Cameron, D., and Rougier, J., 2011. Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model. Climate Dynamics, 37, 1469–1482. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0921-9
Edwards, P.N., 2013. A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming. MIT Press.
Knutti, R., and Sedláček, J., 2013. Robustness and uncertainties in CMIP5 projections. Nature Climate Change, 3, 369–373. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716
Milanković, M., 1941. Kanon der Erdbestrahlung und seine Anwendung auf des Eiszeitenproblem. Royal Serbian Academy of Sciences.
Saltzman, B., 2002. Dynamical Paleoclimatology. Academic Press.
Imbrie, J., et al., 1992. On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles. Paleoceanography, 7, 701–738. https://doi.org/10.1029/92PA02253
Raisbeck, G.M., et al., 1990. ¹⁰Be evidence for solar variability. Nature, 343, 421–424. https://doi.org/10.1038/343421a0
Bond, G., et al., 2001. Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate. Science, 294, 2130–2136. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1065680
Usoskin, I.G., Solanki, S.K., and Kovaltsov, G.A., 2007. Grand minima and maxima of solar activity. Astronomy and Astrophysics, 471, 301–309. https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361:20077704
Usoskin, I.G., Sokoloff, D., and Moss, D., 2009. Grand minima and the mean-field dynamo. Solar Physics, 254, 345–355. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-008-9307-6
Zharkova, V., 2020. Modern Grand Solar Minimum. Temperature, 7, 217–222. https://doi.org/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243
Solanki, S.K., et al., 2004. Unusual solar activity during the past century. Nature, 431, 1084–1087. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02995
Bony, S., et al., 2006. Climate feedback processes. Journal of Climate, 19, 3445–3482. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3819.1
Ghil, M., 2019. A century of nonlinearity in the geosciences. Earth and Space Science, 6, 1007–1042. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000599
Fischer, H., et al., 1999. Ice core records of atmospheric CO₂. Science, 283, 1712–1714. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.283.5408.1712
Caillon, N., et al., 2003. Timing of atmospheric CO₂ changes. Science, 299, 1728–1731. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1078758
Scotese, C.R., et al., 2021. Phanerozoic paleotemperatures. Earth-Science Reviews, 215, 103503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103503
Lowe, J.J., and Walker, M.J., 2015. Reconstructing Quaternary Environments. Routledge.
Scafetta, N., et al., 2016. Astronomical origin of Hallstatt oscillation. Earth-Science Reviews, 162, 24–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.09.015
Sicre, M.-A., et al., 2008. Decadal SST variability off North Iceland. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 268, 137–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2007.12.038
IPCC, 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896
Levitus, S., et al., 2012. World ocean heat content. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L10603. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051106
Cheng, L., et al., 2017. Improved estimates of ocean heat content. Science Advances, 3, e1601545. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601545
Held, I.M., and Soden, B.J., 2000. Water vapor feedback. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 25, 441–475. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.25.1.441
Sherwood, S.C., et al., 2020. Earth’s climate sensitivity. Reviews of Geophysics, 58, e2019RG000678. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678
Bony, S., and Dufresne, J.-L., 2005. Marine boundary layer clouds. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L20806. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023851
Zelinka, M.D., et al., 2020. Higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL085782. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782
Hill, P.G., et al., 2025. Cloud feedback uncertainty. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL117183. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL117183
Goody, R.M., and Yung, Y.L., 1995. Atmospheric Radiation. Oxford University Press.
Petty, G.W., 2006. A First Course in Atmospheric Radiation. Sundog Publishing.
Shine, K.P., and Perry, G.E., 2023. Radiative forcing decomposition. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149, 1856–1866. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4469
Zhong, W., and Haigh, J.D., 2013. Greenhouse effect and CO₂. Weather, 68, 100–105. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2072
Mlynczak, M., et al., 2016. Spectroscopic foundation of radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 5318–5325. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068887
Myhre, G., et al., 1998. Radiative forcing estimates. Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 2715–2718. https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL01908
Etminan, M., et al., 2016. Revised radiative forcing of CO₂. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 612–614. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071930
Shine, K.P., Ptashnik, I.V., and Radel, G., 2012. Water vapour continuum. Surveys in Geophysics, 33, 535–555. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9170-2
Cramer, W., et al., 2001. Terrestrial ecosystem response. Global Change Biology, 7, 357–373. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00376.x
Gitz, V., and Ciais, P., 2003. Land-use change amplification. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 335, 1179–1198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2003.09.005
Cox, P.M., et al., 2004. Amazonian forest dieback. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 137–156. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-004-0049-4
Bondeau, A., et al., 2007. Agriculture and carbon balance. Global Change Biology, 13, 679–706. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01318.x
Piao, S.L., et al., 2012. Carbon budget of East Asia. Biogeosciences, 9, 3571–3586. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3571-2012
Schaphoff, S., et al., 2013. Permafrost soils and carbon budget. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 014026 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014026
Lorenz, E.N., 1963. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 20, 130–141. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:DNF>2.0.CO;2
Deser, C., et al., 2012. Internal variability and projection uncertainty. Climate Dynamics, 38, 527–546. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-6
Edwards, N.R., 2010. Modelling uncertainties. Geoscientific Model Development, 3, 231–232. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-231-2010
Stouffer, R.J., 2004. Time scales of climate response. Journal of Climate, 17, 209–217. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0209:TSOCR>2.0.CO;2
WCRP, 2019. WCRP Strategic Plan 2019–2028.
Crowley, T.J., 1989. Paleoclimate perspectives. In: Berger et al. (eds.), Climate and Geo-Sciences. Springer.
IPCC, 2022. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844
Crowley, T.J., and Kim, K.Y., 1996. Proxy records and solar forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 359–362. https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL00205
Haug, G.H., and Tiedemann, R., 1998. Formation of the Isthmus of Panama. Nature, 393, 673–676. https://doi.org/10.1038/30533
Valentine, J.W., 2004. On the Origin of Phyla. University of Chicago Press.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Paul Mazza (Author)

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.